Weekend wagers: Seven bets including three apiece on UFC 313, March Madness

A large segment of the tourists up and down the Strip this weekend will be in town for Las Vegas’ first UFC pay-per-view event of the year.

Another smaller, though potentially overlapping group will be here to take in the early portions of the college basketball marathon in store for the next several weeks.  

March Madness is officially in effect with the start of conference tournaments. A blockbuster fight card headlined by superstar Alex Pereira may surpass it as the biggest sports draw of the weekend but college basketball is coming for its attention crown from there.

The two sports will undoubtedly dominate betting action this weekend in sports books, so it will also do the same in Weekend Wagers.

Read below for seven bets to make this weekend including three apiece on March Madness and UFC 313. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.  

College Basketball (0-1, -$360):  Xavier -11 vs. Providence (Caesars/William Hill)

$330 to win $300

I have this line as two points short — a relatively large delta this late into the season. A lot of the discrepancy between myself and the market probably has to do with recent performance. The injured Friars are limping to the finish line of the regular season while the Musketeers have gotten healthier and are firing on all cylinders as part of a six-game win streak. I don’t see that slowing on Senior Day where Xavier will be looking to solidify its NCAA Tournament at-large resume while sending a couple pillars of the program (Zach Freemantle and Dayvion McKnight) out on a high.  

College Basketball (0-1, -$360): Maine to win the America East Conference Tournament at 10-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $1,000

I’m either masochistic or love bracketed basketball too much, but I’m placing a future on every conference tournament this year. Two more start today that require handicapping. Bryant is the No. 1 seed and clear best team in the America East, but the Bulldogs are sloppy and play fast, high-variance games. Translation: They’re ripe to be upset. No. 3 seed Maine wouldn’t have to potentially play them until the championship game anyway. The Black Bears have a tough first game against Massachusetts-Lowell but then lucked out by being on Vermont’s side of the bracket instead of Bryant’s. Vermont is usually the class of this league but it lost point guard Shamir Bogues late in the season. Perhaps that’s enough to give Maine a leg-up on an upset in the semifinals and a shot at the title. At 10-to-1, it’s worth a shot.  

College Basketball (0-1, -$360): Montana to win Big Sky Conference Tournament at 3-to-1 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$200 to win $600

No. 1 seed Northern Colorado and No. 2 seed Montana look evenly-matched in the Big Sky after splitting their pair of regular-season meetings and finishing with the same 15-3 record. But the Grizzlies got the better draw. They take on the winner of Portland State vs. Idaho, two middling sides that don’t look like much of a threat to make a run. Northern Colorado gets the more formidable winner of Montana State vs. Idaho State on the top half of the bracket. Montana State went on a Cinderella run to win this event a year ago while Idaho State has the best player in the conference in Washington State transfer Dylan Darling. Montana should almost certainly be in the title game; Northern Colorado has some work to do. There’s no reason why the latter should be as low as +140 to cut down the nets.

UFC (2-0, $500): Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO/DQ at +110 vs. King Green at UFC 313 (SuperBook)

$300 to win $330

I’ve cashed knockout props in back-to-back weeks in this column. I can’t quit now. This is the first one straying from the heavyweight class, but the lightweight prospect Ruffy has shown power typically reserved for men twice his size. The Brazilian, who fights out of the red-hot Fighting Nerds camp in Sao Paulo, had won five straight fights by knockout before settling for a decision over James Llontop in his last UFC bout. He has a great chance to get back in the finish column against the suddenly-chinny Green tonight at T-Mobile Arena. Green is a great fighter who’s had a long, successful career but he’s now been stopped four times in the last three years including suffering three knockouts. Make it five stoppage losses and four knockouts against Ruffy.

UFC (2-0, $500): Iasmin Lucindo -135 vs. Amanda Lemos at UFC 313 (Caesars/William Hill)

$405 to win $300

Youth trumps all in combat sports, especially in the lighter weight classes. Lucindo is 14 years younger than Lemos, fighting in the smallest weight class (strawweight, 115 pounds) in the promotion. The two fighters’ careers are going accordingly too. Lucindo has won four straight and established herself as someone to watch in the next generation of fighters. Lemos has lost two of three and might be on her way out. Yes, the latter has faced much tougher competition but Lucindo hits as hard as any of them. This is the cycle of life in mixed martial arts. Lucindo should make a big step in her career on the second main-card fight of the night.  

UFC (2-0, $500): Magomed Ankalaev -105 vs. Alex Pereiera at UFC 313 (SuperBook)

$315 to win $300

Few want to admit it, but the challenger Ankalaev has the champion Pereira covered everywhere. He shouldn’t be the underdog, regardless of how small, in the long-awaited clash of rivals. Ankalaev has a strong route to victory if he chooses to employ his wrestling. Even if he doesn’t, Pereira isn’t infallible on the feet. The champion has taken some shots over the last several years. Israel Adesanya might be the only one who’s knocked him out in mixed martial arts to this point, but Ankalaev is also capable. Name value is influencing this line far too much.  

NBA (1-0, $300): Boston Celtics -6 vs. Los Angeles Lakers (Caesars/William Hill)

$440 to win $400

I’ve frequently bet on the new-look Lakers over their current run of eight straight wins, including two weeks ago as part of this column. But you’ve got to know when to sell. The time is now. Los Angeles was fortunate to draw a forgiving part of the schedule for the stretch where it was breaking in Luka Doncic next to LeBron James and took advantage. Yes, the Lakers proved it was more than that on Thursday by beating the Knicks 113-109 as 3-point favorites but everything broke their way in that game. They got to overtime despite trailing for the vast majority of the game and saw Jalen Brunson suffer an ankle injury that left the Knicks lost over the final few possessions. The defending champion Celtics, which are trending more towards full health for this game, will take no mercy against a suspect Lakers’ defense.

Weekend betting column year to date: 30-26, $3,381

Weekend betting column all-time: 858-954, $38,529.09 

Previous pending wagers: New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800);  Edmonton Oilers to win President's Trophy at 6-to-1 ($300 to win $1,800);  Ryan Dunn to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 12-to-1 ($190 to win $1,280); Houston basketball to win the Big 12 regular season title at +250 ($200 to win $500); Auburn basketball to win the SEC regular season title at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); San Diego State to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title at +450 ($200 to win $900);  South Carolina women's basketball to win the national championship at +305 ($500 to win $1,525); Houston to win the men's NCAA Tournament at 10-to-1 ($200 to win $2,000); Texas to win the women's NCAA Tournament at 10-to-1 ($200 to win $2,000); Rory McIlroy to win the Masters at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Justin Thomas to win the Masters at 30-to-1 ($95 to win $2,850); Tyrell Hatton to win the Masters at 50-to-1 ($2,850); Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Western Conference at +110 ($500 to win $550); Arkansas to win the College World Series at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Texas Rangers to win the American League at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Cincinnati Bengals to win Super Bowl 60 at 20-to-1 ($200 to win $4,000); Russell Henley to win the Players Championship at 50-to-1 ($50 to win $2,500); Cooper Flagg to win John Wooden Award at +190 ($500 to win $950); Zach Edey to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 ($100 to win $2,000)