Weekend wagers: Six bets to make on six different sports

All five bets placed in the return of Weekend Wagers a week ago wound up with closing line value.

It still wasn’t enough for a winning week.

I went 2-3 for a $410 loss with the defeats including an overtime hockey loser and late-lap crash in NASCAR.

That’s not meant as a complaint; it’s all part of the game. The objective is to keep placing wagers that age valuably in the market like our handful last week, and hope for the best outcome.

I’m right back at it this week with the same five sports, and another one thrown in for good measure in this futures-heavy edition.

Read below to find six bets for this weekend. Odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas at publication time with the sports book noted. Plays outside of the column will be linked and tracked in the record at the bottom of the page.

NHL (0-1, -$300): Detroit Red Wings Even money at Columbus Blue Jackets (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

$200 to win $200

Columbus crushed Detroit Thursday on the road — and I lost money on it, for full disclosure —  but this game should be a lot different. For starters, the Red Wings should have Alex Lyon in net and he’s been better than primary No. 1 goalie Cam Talbot lately. More importantly, the Blue Jackets will be down a top-six forward in Cole Sillinger after the playmaking center suffered an upper-body injury earlier in the first leg of the home-and-home against the Red Wings. Columbus has been a great story and flummoxed bettors like me all season but it’s magic is likely to run out at some point. Detroit gets a small dose of revenge this afternoon at Ohio Stadium as part of the NHL's outdoor series.

UFC (1-0, $200): Mario Pinto by KO/TKO/DQ at -140 vs. Austen Lane at UFC Night Fight (SuperBook)

$420 to win $300

The chalky UFC heavyweight knockout prop was one of the only bets to work out in last week’s column, so let’s run it back. This one looks even better. Pinto is an undefeated Portuguese prospect who could inject some much-needed life into the UFC’s biggest weight division. The promotion seems to be feeding him the perfect opponent to build up his name this evening in Lane, a former NFL veteran who rates as one of the worst in the UFC in taking head shots. That means trouble against a younger, heavier-handed Pinto.

NASCAR (0-1, -$250): Shane van Gisbergen head-to-head vs. William Byron in Echopark Automotive 400 at -130 (SuperBook)

$260 to win $200

The back-to-back Daytona 500 winner Byron sure is getting a lot of credit for having won this race at Circuit of the Americas a year ago. It’s too much credit for my liking. Last year’s performance at this stop means little this week considering NASCAR has shortened the course and lengthened the lap count. Figuring out exactly what that means predictively is an inexact science, but it would seemingly benefit the most seasoned road racers. Van Gisbergen is the best road racer in the business. As the pre-race favorite, the New Zealand native should probably lay -150 against any driver in a head-to-head — especially one I’d rate more in the middle of the pack like Byron. I’m treading lightly on this race with so many unknowns but, if forced to bet something, it’s hard to go wrong with van Gisbergen.

Golf (0-0, $0): Russell Henley to win the Players Championship at 50-to-1 (Boyd Sports)

$50 to win $2,500

I’m already losing money on Henley outright bets every week, so what’s one more? That’s the pessimistic way of looking at this, of course. The optimistic route is that Henley is one of the most underrated players in the world and has been at the doorstep of a number of wins recently (and might be again this weekend sitting four strokes back in the Cognizant Classic at PGA National). Maybe he breaks through in the highest-pursed event of the year two weeks from now at TPC Sawgrass in North Florida. Henley has popped a few times over the years at the event, with three top-20 finishes, and has the approach-heavy game that should fit. Long shots are usually the way to look in the Players, so I’ll start the card with one and hope to build it more in the column's coming weeks. Boyd deserves a shoutout for posting these odds so early, and I thought making it in the form of a bet was an appropriate gesture.

College Basketball (0-1, -$360): Cooper Flagg to win John Wooden Award at +190 (Caesars/William Hill)

$500 to win $950

It’s time to slightly sell on Auburn with a hellacious final stretch of the regular season starting today with a road trip at Kentucky before going to Texas A&M and then hosting Alabama. The Tigers are likely — and hopefully for the sake of one of our futures — too far ahead to crash out at the top of the SEC standings, but a loss or two could really hurt Johni Broome’s National Player of the Year chances. Duke is far less likely to drop a game with Florida State, Wake Forest and North Carolina left. This has been a neck-in-neck race all year with Flagg getting as high as a -800 favorite a few weeks ago. Broome should be the favorite now, but this is too big of a correction. Flagg is still the best player in the nation by most metrics, and the voter base increasingly relies on those numbers to inform their selections. I’m already riding a Broome bet from earlier in the season personally — one I’m regretting not sharing in the column — so this is somewhat of a hedge. But it’s a good bet regardless; this award feels like a coinflip given the current situation.   

NBA (1-0, $300): Zach Edey to win the Rookie of the Year at 20-to-1 (Caesars/William Hill)

$100 to win $2,000

Unlike the Flagg bet, I don’t really expect this one to win. I just think it wins more than the 5% of the time the odds imply. Edey has established himself as a starter on one of the best teams in the NBA. That has to count for something. He’s been the most valuable rookie by the metrics that have been most correlated with awards voting in the past, including estimated plus-minus. Teammate Jaylen Wells is neck-in-neck in that category, but his minutes have been decreasing overall. Stephon Castle is the odds-on favorite, but he’s stuck on what’s now an afterthought Spurs team without the injured Victor Wembanyama. The likeliest scenario is Castle keeps scoring at a high clip and claims the award but the Spurs aren’t going to push him in what’s now a lost season. If he gets banged up at all, they’re likely to shut him down for the final stretch of games. Meanwhile the Grizzlies are leaning Edey to deliver them to the highest-possible playoff seed. I should probably just concede this market after having previously made two terrible Rookie of the Year bets in the column, but where’s the fun in that? Maybe Edey gets hot and makes a late charge. The numbers say he’s right there.  

Weekend betting column year to date: 29-24, $3,541

Weekend betting column all-time: 847-952, $38,689.09

Previous pending wagers: New Jersey Devils to win Stanley Cup Final at 16-to-1 ($250 to win $4,000); Reed Sheppard to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 11-to-1 ($200 to win $2,200); Carolina Hurricanes to win President's Trophy at 15-to-1 ($150 to win $2,250); Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to win NBA MVP ($300 to win $1,800);  Edmonton Oilers to win President's Trophy at 6-to-1 ($300 to win $1,800);  Ryan Dunn to win NBA Rookie of the Year at 12-to-1 ($190 to win $1,280); Houston basketball to win the Big 12 regular season title at +250 ($200 to win $500); Auburn basketball to win the SEC regular season title at 3-to-1 ($300 to win $900); San Diego State to win the Mountain West Conference regular season title at +450 ($200 to win $900);  South Carolina women's basketball to win the national championship at +305 ($500 to win $1,525); Houston to win the men's NCAA Tournament at 10-to-1 ($200 to win $2,000); Texas to win the women's NCAA Tournament at 10-to-1 ($200 to win $2,000); Rory McIlroy to win the Masters at 9-to-1 ($300 to win $2,700); Justin Thomas to win the Masters at 30-to-1 ($95 to win $2,850); Tyrell Hatton to win the Masters at 50-to-1 ($2,850); Oklahoma City Thunder to win the Western Conference at +110 ($500 to win $550); Arkansas to win the College World Series at 14-to-1 ($200 to win $2,800); Texas Rangers to win the American League at 12-to-1 ($200 to win $2,400); Cincinnati Bengals to win Super Bowl 60 at 20-to-1 ($200 to win $4,000)