Sunday, Aug. 16, 2026 | 2 a.m.
Editor's note: Este artículo está traducido al español.
Gov. Joe Lombardo is sitting connected a warfare thorax of astir $15 cardinal — a premix of nonstop donations and wealth flowing to governmental enactment committees backing his campaign.
His Democratic rival, Attorney General Aaron Ford, is sitting connected $2.6 million, according to authorities run concern disclosure reports filed July 15 with the Nevada caput of state’s office.
On paper, that’s not a fundraising edge — it’s a chasm.
One would expect Lombardo to beryllium coasting toward a blowout reelection Nov. 3. Instead, polls amusement the contention is cervix and neck, and depending connected which canvass you believe, either campaigner could propulsion disconnected the win.
“People are saying: If 1 broadside has that overmuch much money, however tin they beryllium tied?” said Sondra Cosgrove, enforcement manager of Vote Nevada, a civic-engagement nonprofit.
According to a canvass commissioned by Democrats past month, Lombardo and Ford were tied with 44% enactment each, with little than 100 days remaining until Election Day. Two different polls from the aforesaid month, commissioned by the GOP, amusement Lombardo comfortably up — by 12 and 7 points, respectively.
Experts accidental the spread betwixt fundraising and polling comes down to timing: Voters simply haven’t tuned successful yet connected the race. And adjacent erstwhile they do, run spending lone goes truthful acold successful swaying results.
“The immense bulk of Nevadans are not paying immoderate attraction to this contention close now, and they’re going to commencement to bash that successful September and October,” said Kenneth Miller, an adjunct prof of governmental subject astatine UNLV and an adept connected run finance. “That’s erstwhile you’re going to spot that tiny fig of undecided voters benignant retired 1 mode oregon another.”
Despite spending $27 cardinal truthful far, Lombardo’s run inactive has $9.2 cardinal currency connected manus — connected apical of millions much that supporting PACs are expected to determination in.
Better Nevada PAC, the blimpish governmental enactment committee backing Lombardo and GOP priorities, is down billboards scattered crossed the vale picturing Ford alongside California Gov. Gavin Newsom nether the enactment “Gavin Newsom endorses Aaron Ford” — a jab that plays connected fears that Nevada is drifting into California’s governmental orbit.
Miller predicts Lombardo’s fundraising borderline “is lone going to increase” successful the campaign’s last months; helium is the incumbent, aft all. But, Miller stresses, that borderline is nary warrant of who volition win.
Lombardo’s run brought successful $16.2 cardinal successful the 2nd 4th of 2026 — the April-through-June play — including astir $14 cardinal from 2 supporting PACs, according to second-quarter authorities run concern reports filed with the Nevada caput of state’s office.
The Better Nevada PAC received $5 cardinal from the Republican Governors Association and $2.5 cardinal from Robert Bigelow, the enigmatic Las Vegas-based existent property mogul and abstraction billionaire who founded Budget Suites of America. The Nevada Way PAC took successful $1 cardinal from Station Casinos, on with $100,000 each from Boyd Gaming and Fontainebleau Las Vegas, according to authoritative governmental enactment committee publication reports filed with the caput of state’s office.
Ford’s campaign, by comparison, drew contributions from astir 13,000 idiosyncratic donors, astir 90% of whom gave $90 oregon less, the run said.
“Ford’s robust grassroots enactment demonstrates a continued, deep, statewide backing for his candidacy,” his run said successful a quality release.
Campaign spending tin determination the needle 3 to 4 points done elector mobilization, but it doesn’t alteration underlying elector support, Miller said — if astir voters simply don’t backmost a candidate, campaigning isn’t going to alteration their minds.
“Money is not a proxy for nationalist support,” helium said.
Outspending your hostile whitethorn not substance overmuch if a campaigner inactive has capable wealth to get his oregon her connection out.
Cosgrove argues that Lombardo’s vantage comes with diminishing returns — determination are lone truthful galore ads and mailers voters tin absorb.
“I deliberation we’re astatine a tipping constituent for however overmuch wealth really makes a difference,” Cosgrove said.
Cosgrove said commissioning excessively galore ads could backfire due to the fact that voters get bushed of changeless run messaging.
That leads to “a batch of radical don’t ballot due to the fact that they conscionable get overwhelmed,” Cosgrove said.
Campaign spending is lone portion of the equation successful reaching voters.
Lombardo’s run said it planned to proceed its tract operations — knocking connected doors, making telephone calls and organizing grassroots coalitions specified arsenic Democrats for Lombardo, a radical it describes arsenic made of astatine slightest 100 concern owners who place arsenic Democrats and person endorsed Lombardo.
“With little than 100 days until Election Day, our run has been consistently engaged with communities crossed Nevada and is gathering voters wherever they are,” the run said.
Ford’s run highlighted its slew of run stops astatine tiny businesses, national halls and hospitals. While astatine a fundraising disadvantage, the run said it’s trying to marque up the spread done a holistic approach.
“Our run is reaching them (voters) successful each abstraction wherever they devour accusation — connected the air, done the news, connected societal media and successful their communities — and that go-everywhere attack is however we’re going to triumph successful November,” Zoe Kleinfeld, run manager for the Ford campaign, wrote successful an email to the Sun.
Whether Ford’s strategy tin flooded the fundraising spread remains to beryllium seen. Lombardo’s fiscal vantage has yet to construe into a wide pb successful the polls, but it could transportation much value arsenic the run enters its last stretch.
“We’re going to person to spot if wealth tin determination the needle successful that play due to the fact that it doesn’t look to beryllium moving it close now,” Cosgrove said.
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