After renewed US-Iran strikes - how could the conflict end?

Nicholas Hopton, a Distinguished Fellow in planetary information at the Royal United Services Institute in London and former UK ambassador to Iran, argues that the recent surge in military activity will not force Iran to capitulate; it merely represents another twist in the ongoing standoff. He contends that economic pressure alone is unlikely to succeed, noting that China, Russia and numerous other nations that trade with Iran are unwilling to enforce unilateral US sanctions. Hopton warns that Iran retains the ability to disrupt the Strait of Hormuz, describing its influence as “a thumb on the jugular of the world economy.” He asks what the White House’s exit strategy might be, suggesting that the United States already possesses one. If former President Trump could maintain a sustained diplomatic effort to implement the agreement outlined in the June Memorandum of Understanding, that would provide an off‑ramp. According to Hopton, such a deal would grant the United States a form of victory by weakening hardline elements within the Islamic Republic while reassuring the international community that Iran will not acquire a nuclear weapon. He highlights a “metal slug” embedded in the MoU: the lifting of all US sanctions on Iran. Removing those sanctions, he says, would gradually undermine the power of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Renewed economic engagement between the outside world and Iran, conducted in a new framework, would slowly pressure extremist governmental and societal shifts, ultimately yielding an Islamic regime of a markedly different character. Achieving this outcome, Hopton acknowledges, will not be straightforward given the IRGC’s deep entrenchment in Iran’s economy. Nevertheless, he believes it could succeed if afforded sufficient time and if the United States and its partners exercise strategic patience—a commodity he says is currently in short supply. In the interim, he anticipates a continuation of a messy, inconclusive situation that is detrimental to all parties involved.