Could El Niño mean there are no Atlantic hurricanes this year?

El Niño, characterized by the warming of the tropical Pacific, alters global wind patterns. During an El Niño event, shifting wind currents increase upper‑level winds over the Atlantic, intensifying wind shear—the rapid change of wind speed and direction with height. This heightened shear disrupts isolated thunderstorms, inhibiting their growth into tropical storms or hurricanes. Conversely, the Pacific basin typically becomes more active under El Niño conditions. Elevated sea‑surface temperatures, combined with favorable wind environments, supply additional energy that fuels storm development into tropical systems and hurricanes. Observations this year show sea‑surface temperature records already surpassed in a critical region of the central‑eastern Pacific. Current readings exceed the previous benchmark set during the strong El Niño of 2015. To date, the Atlantic basin has recorded 17 named storms, comprising nine hurricanes, seven of which reached major status. The season’s Accumulated Cyclone Energy—a measure of storm power—is approximately 2 and fractional times above the climatological average for this point in the year. Forecasts indicate El Niño will continue to strengthen, with its peak expected in November or December.