NFL betting trends — Week 4: Edge for Raiders-Chiefs

Bruce Marshall, handicapper for CBS Sportsline, contributed this NFL betting trends column to the Las Vegas Review‑Journal on October 2, 2026 at 4:43 p.m. **Kansas City at Las Vegas** – Although the Chiefs dropped the previous season’s finale at Allegiant Stadium without Patrick Mahomes, Mahomes is 7‑0 straight up and 4‑3 against the spread in his career as a visitor versus the Raiders. Kansas City closed last season on a 1‑8 spread skid but opened 2026 3‑0 straight up and 2‑1 versus the points. The Chiefs are also on a 7‑1 “under” run since late 2025. Las Vegas enters 2026 3‑0 straight up and versus the spread, and the last five meetings in this AFC West series have all gone “under.” Tech edge: “Under,” based on “totals” trends. **Indianapolis vs. Washington (London)** – Under Shane Steichen the Colts have started quickly and are 13‑5 versus the line in the first five games since 2023. Washington is just 4‑8 versus the points away from Landover since late 2024, but the Commanders sit on a 7‑0 “over” streak since late 2025. Tech edge: “Over” and slight to the Colts, based on “totals” and team trends. **New England at Buffalo** – The clubs split a pair of games last season. New England has failed to cover its last four road efforts from Gillette Stadium since late last season and has gone “under” in five straight since late 2025. Buffalo is 3‑0 straight up and versus the line, and holds an 8‑1‑1 “over” run since late 2025. Tech edge: Bills, based on recent trends. **N.Y. Jets at Chicago** – The Jets look improved compared with the late‑season mindset a year ago, having covered two of their first three games this season after losing and failing to cover their previous five a year ago. Chicago is on a 14‑6 spread run since early 2025 after beating the Eagles on Monday, and the Bears also carry a 9‑5 “under” streak since mid 2025. Tech edge: Slight to “under” and the Bears, based on “totals” and recent trends. **Jacksonville at Cincinnati** – Cincinnati won and covered the meeting last season 31‑27 in similar fashion. Jacksonville, however, is on a 10‑1 spread record in regular‑season games since mid 2025. Note that Cincinnati closed last season on a 6‑1 “under” tally but is 2‑1 “over” to begin the current campaign. Tech edge: Jaguars, based on team trends. **Arizona at N.Y. Giants** – Arizona has begun the current season covering two of its first three after dropping five of its last five and eight of its last nine versus the spread a year ago. John Harbaugh is 2‑1 straight up and versus the line with the Giants, who have won and covered their last three at MetLife since late 2025. After finishing 10‑2 “over” a year ago, New York has gone “under” in two of its first three to open this season. Tech edge: Slight to Giants, based on team trends. **L.A. Rams at Philadelphia** – Rams head coach Sean McVay is merely 1‑6 straight up all‑time versus the Eagles. Los Angeles has also failed to cover its last six road games from SoFi after last week’s loss at Denver, and after closing the prior season on an 8‑1 “over” tally the Rams are 2‑1 “under” to start 2026. Philadelphia is 0‑3 versus the spread this season, with no cover in the past five or eight of eleven since late 2025. After an 8‑2 “under” finish a year ago, the Eagles’ “over” is 2‑1 to begin 2026. Tech edge: Slight to Eagles, based on series trends. **Green Bay at Tampa Bay** – Former NFC Central rivals from long ago, neither side has covered a spread in three attempts to open this season. Green Bay is on a 0‑7‑1 spread skid since late 2025 and is 2‑11‑1 versus the figure on the road since late 2024. Tampa Bay eases the Packers’ situation, sporting a 12‑game spread skid since mid 2025 and a 5‑1 “under” run since late last season. Tech edge: Slight to “under,” based on “totals” trends. **Tennessee at Baltimore** – The Titans are on a 5‑13‑1 spread skid as a visitor since late 2023, although Baltimore has dropped its last five versus the spread as host. The Ravens are on a 5‑1 “over” streak since late 2025. Tech edge: Slight to Ravens and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends. **Dallas at Houston** – Houston won big, 34‑10, at Arlington in 2024 when Dak Prescott was out and Cooper Rush started at QB. Dallas, however, has dropped its last five and seven of the last eight versus the spread as a visitor. The Cowboys also hold an 8‑0‑1 “over” run since late 2025. Houston is 0‑4 straight up and versus the spread since late last season. Tech edge: Slight to “over,” based on “totals” trends. **Miami at Minnesota** – Miami is 0‑3 straight up and versus the line, while Minnesota is 3‑0 straight up and versus the line, giving the Vikings a clear edge. The Dolphins have no covers in their last four road games from Hard Rock Stadium since late last year. Minnesota stands at 8‑0 straight up, 7‑0‑1 versus the spread since late 2025. Tech edge: Vikings, based on team trends. **Denver at San Francisco** – Denver is on a 7‑0 spread tally as an underdog since early 2025 and is 6‑2 “under” in its last eight road games from Mile High. The 49ers are 3‑0 straight up to open the season but remain only 6‑10‑1 versus the spread at Santa Clara since mid 2024. Tech edge: Broncos, based on team trends. **L.A. Chargers at Seattle** – Los Angeles has opened the season 0‑3 straight up and versus the line, and is 0‑6 straight up and versus the line since late 2025. The Chargers are also “under” 3‑0 and on an 8‑0‑1 “under” run. Seattle dropped five spread decisions last season and returned with a spread win on four occasions, most recently falling to the Commanders. The Seahawks retain a 16‑5‑1 spread surge since early last season. Tech edge: Seahawks and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends. **Detroit at Carolina** – Detroit had lost eight of its previous ten versus the spread prior to last week’s win and a tight coverage versus the Jets, and is merely 2‑5 versus the spread in its last seven road games. The Lions also carry a 10‑3 “over” run since early 2025. Carolina covered eight of its last eleven as a underdog a year ago, though they are just 0‑1 in that role so far in 2026. Tech edge: “Over” and slight to Panthers, based on “totals” and team trends. **Atlanta at New Orleans (Monday)** – Atlanta won and covered both meetings last season, narrowly in the regular‑season finale. The last three and five of the past seven games in this series have stayed “under.” New Orleans had covered eight straight since late 2025 before last week’s loss to the Raiders. Tech edge: Slight to Saints and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.