What we should make of CIA boss's secret trip to Moscow

Putin is well aware of Donald Trump’s periodic disdain for NATO and may have calculated that a low‑key attack on, say, Lithuania would not trigger the alliance’s collective self‑defence clause – Article 5 – and that the United States would not respond. In that scenario, it would make sense for at least part of the CIA chief’s unexplained trip to Moscow to have been intended to remind Russia that Washington remains fully committed to Article 5. Lithuania holds particular interest for the Kremlin because it shares a border with Poland along the stretch known as the “Suwalki Gap.” At just 60 miles long, this corridor is the only land separating Russia’s ally Belarus from the Russian nuclear‑armed exclave of Kaliningrad, which itself is cut off from mainland Russia. Were Russia to seize the gap, it would effectively cut the three Baltic states off from their NATO neighbours by land. The issue of tactical nuclear warheads also looms. Russian military doctrine has long regarded these small but highly destructive weapons as an integral part of its way of war. Despite an 81‑year‑old taboo against using nuclear weapons in anger – a prohibition warned against by both friends and foes – Moscow has been cautioned not to break it. Nevertheless, Putin could still view the option as tempting: to “escalate to de‑escalate” by demonstrating to Ukraine that Russia possesses such catastrophic weapons, thereby suggesting that Kyiv would be better off capitulating to Moscow’s position now rather than facing annihilation. Because the United States has offered no clear, attributable, authoritative explanation for the sudden CIA dash to Moscow, other motives remain plausible. The visit might have aimed to persuade Russia to curb its military cooperation with Iran, to arrange further prisoner swaps, or to prepare for a wide‑scale mobilisation of Russian troops. Make no mistake – the trip was highly unusual and occurred amid rising hostility between Moscow and the West. Something significant is undoubtedly afoot.