In his weekly "Tuley's Takes" column, a Las Vegas Review-Journal handicapper analyzes NFL Week 6 matchups from a "dog-or-pass" perspective, evaluating whether underdogs are receiving enough points to warrant a wager. The column highlights three games where the underdog presents potential value against the current betting lines.
For the Thursday night matchup, the New England Patriots opened as 7-point favorites over the New York Jets, with the line briefly touching -7.5 before settling back at -7 at most sportsbooks. Despite New England's 4-1 record against the spread and a 45-17 rout of the Raiders, the handicapper believes the 2-3 Jets — who have pushed as underdogs against Green Bay and Detroit — can stay within a touchdown.
In the Baltimore-Cleveland game, the line has climbed from an advance of Ravens -2.5 as the market anticipates quarterback Lamar Jackson's return from an ankle injury. The handicapper is taking the extra points with the Browns at home, noting Baltimore won in overtime at Atlanta without Jackson and expecting a field-goal decision. The writer also noted a successful teaser on Cleveland +8.5 in Week 5.
The final play targets the Tennessee Titans as 7-point underdogs against the Indianapolis Colts. The handicapper views the Colts as a mediocre team that should not be laying a full touchdown, citing Indianapolis' 34-22 loss at Pittsburgh. Tennessee is 0-5 straight up but 2-3 against the spread with covers against Philadelphia and Baltimore.
The column also previewed the Rams-Cardinals game in the late window, noting Los Angeles is the week's only double-digit favorite despite a 2-3 record. The analysis was cut off before a final lean was given on that matchup.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
English (US)·