Steve Makinen identifies San Jose State as a best bet in the Mountain West, noting the Spartans are favored by at least 11 points according to his Effective Strength models, despite the line being set at -4½. He cites historical data showing favorites of at least 4 points on Mountain West Friday nights have gone 57-4 straight up since 2016, and points out Wyoming has not won in four tries at San Jose since becoming conference mates.
In another game, Makinen sees value in the over for Washington State vs. Utah State, noting the total is set at 44½ despite low raw scoring averages. He explains that effective points-for averages are actually 26.9 and 24.2 PPG for the two teams, and his effective play-by-play numbers project the game’s scoring to be in the 53 range, supported by a trend where bettors siding with the over in low-total games have gone 219-186 since 2022.
Regarding North Dakota State vs. UNLV, Makinen states he has had his eye on the game as a potential first real test for the Bison, whose best win so far is a 38-32 victory at Air Force. He notes UNLV is on a 25-13 ATS run following a straight-up win and has won back-to-back games after a slow start, positioning them as a team still aiming for the Mountain West title game.
Sources: Las Vegas Review-Journal
Original reporting: Las Vegas Review-Journal →
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